While trying to strengthen Russia, Putin has unified the West. He has partly justified his invasion of Ukraine by pointing to the West’s supposed incursion into Post-Soviet Eastern Europe. According to him, this Western encroachment – exemplified by the brewing possibility of Ukraine joining NATO – poses an existential threat to Russia. But Russia’s actions have seemingly had the opposite intended effect: the West seems more militarized and unified than before.
“We have to realize that we are now faced with a new normal for our security,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg when talking about NATO’s new unified security strategy, “This is just the beginning of the adaptation that we need to do as a response to a much more aggressive Russia.”
“What has strengthened the resolve of leaders is the way in which Putin blatantly lied about his intentions, having repeatedly denied any intent to invade Ukraine.”
For Russia, the risk of post-Soviet neighbour states becoming more involved with the European democracies is that Russians may in the future aspire to join in too. Though others suspect that Putin does not fear democratic influence so much as pro-democratic militarisation in its neighbouring countries.
Cold War Europe
According to some experts, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is part of a broader attempt to rebuild post-Cold War Europe. This includes trying to defend against Western influence in the former Soviet republics and regaining additional territory that was lost at the end of the Cold War.
Ironically, Russia’s actions have now re-invoked Western solidarity against the perceived common threat of Russian aggression.
How is Russian’s invasion unifying the West?
Although Ukrainian president Zelensky conceded that Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in order to appease Russia, Ukraine has applied to join the European Union – contradicting one of Putin’s negotiation conditions. Russia’s neighbouring countries, Georgia and Moldova, have also recently applied for EU membership.
Nato Unity
Not only does the conflict seem to be encouraging greater unity and support for the EU, but it is also promoting a more mitlitarised Europe. To help strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, the EU has for the first time financed the purchase and delivery of weapons.
Emerging from a decade of limited military spending following the European debt crisis, Germany has also increased its military budget. This marks a fundamental shift for Europe’s most powerful nation.
“..this is not about Ukraine, it’s a change in the global order that we have slipped into a new Cold War with Russia.”
Nato Grows Stronger
The military tension in the region has also spurred public support for joining NATO in historically neutral countries, such as Finland and Sweden. Although neither country has made plans to change their security arrangements, they have committed to strengthening defense cooperation between them. Despite not being in NATO, they have also contributed military aid to Ukraine.
“[Sweden] itself, and independently, decides on our security policy line,” said Sweden’s prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, in response to a warning from the Russian foreign ministry’s that their joining NATO would spark “serious military-political consequences”.
The Ukraine-Russian conflict has revived support for NATO among its member states, with the US helping to encourage a unified strategy. The US, the UK, and European states have been unified in this cause, with Biden commenting that Putin is “producing the exact opposite effect that he intended.”
What has strengthened the resolve of leaders is the way in which Putin blatantly lied about his intentions, having repeatedly denied any intent to invade Ukraine. German president, Olaf Sholz, said: “Putin has behaved in a staggering, outrageous fashion to rip up what the Europeans thought were kind of inviolable norms… this is not about Ukraine, it’s a change in the global order that we have slipped into a new Cold War with Russia.”
Looking to the future
Despite these shifts in global politics, the unification of the West is not straightforward. It may take years for the EU and NATO to accept new members due to the accession processes which require unanimous support from existing members.
Furthermore, while the US has been a big player in helping to unify NATO members, some think that Europe should have its own unified security strategy.
Daniel Serwer, a scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies who specializes in conflict, said that Europe is still likely to be split by a pro-West and pro-Russia divide in the future.
“This ‘[clash of civilizations]’ could lead to escalating tensions, with a potential fallout felt by the entire world.”
A more militiarised and unified West could also add flames to Putin’s anti-West narrative and his pre-texts for conflict. Political analyst, Thomas Meaney, suggests that a clash of the “West” versus authoritarianism plays into Putin’s dichotomous narrative in which the idea of ‘Western civilisation’ is re-invoked and equated with the defence of the liberal world order.
“The more we hear about the resolve of the West, the more the values of a liberal international order appear like the provincial set of principles of a particular people, in a particular place,” he says. This could lead to escalating tensions, with a potential fallout felt by the entire world.
Meaney points out that much of the rest of the world is dubious: “The lack of enthusiasm around the world for the West training its economic weapon on Russia indicates that the rest of the world is concerned not only about wider economic immiseration but also about the global escalation of a conflict between two “civilizations” that share the preponderance of the world’s nuclear weapons between them.”